The topline for March performance is that a lot of businesses are feeling the pinch. A reduction in trading days due to public holidays and Easter, has undoubtedly had an impact on SMEs who have had fewer days to hit targets and inevitably seen a decrease in consumer engagement.

The 29th of May seems to have cast a shadow over the market, with some businesses facing something close to paralysis as the country waits to find out what the implications of the election result, no matter how predictable that result might be. This uncertainty puts businesses in a precarious position when predicting April results.

With more trading days in April this year compared to March, and April 2023, optimistically the market can expect a reversal of fortunes. However, persisting uncertainty regarding the general direction of the country and the challenges of a low growth economy, impacting even the most bullish of business owners, there is no guarantee that there will be a quick turnaround.

That’s why proactivity is critical this April.

Petrol prices, interest rate decisions, and basic service delivery failures are still going to be affecting day to day logistics, but there has been the emergence of new levers to be pulled, and new tactics for growth that businesses can employ.

This month’s SME forecast compiled by Retail Capital, a division of TymeBank, explores where Miguel da Silva, Managing Executive, sees a pathway to zig, while others zag. “The best business strategies are all about finding the uncontested spaces and putting your own marker down,” says Miguel. “And when things are tough, that differentiation is the difference between being successful, or being static.”

Petrol up, diesel down

Current fuel prices are not doing our inflation levels any favours and they certainly aren’t helping SMEs who are looking to get a grip on the fluctuating running costs of their businesses. Petrol increased by another 67 cents per litre on 3rd April and diesel by 3.22 cents per litre – on the back of steep increases in February and March. This is likely to fuel inflation, which already hit a four-month high in February, even more.

This will likely lead to higher supply chain costs, and household budgets being tightened further. High costs and less disposable income inevitably add up to tough market conditions for SMEs.

While an increase in the petrol price is not good news for business owners, stability in both the global oil price, and the Rand/Dollar exchange rate could well mean a drop in price in May 2024.

However, fuel prices remain volatile and in times of uncertainty, SME owners would do well to take a conservative approach, and to be prepared in the event of prices hikes in the months to come.

Earnings threshold increased

As of 1 April 2024, the Earnings Threshold for all full-time employees was increased from R20 093 per month to R21 198 per month. The threshold is an earnings figure implemented to ensure the fair treatment of employees and is also an indicator of government-mandated benefits for those earning under the threshold. An increase means that more employees are now covered by the Basic Conditions of Employment Act (BCEA).

But what does this increase really mean, and how will it affect small businesses? An increase in the earnings threshold will result in more employees being eligible for overtime payments, limits on hours worked, increases in regular breaks, and restrictions on night work and obligations to work on public holidays. While this empowers employees – as it should – there can be significant financial impacts for business owners.

The full responsibilities of a business owners are outlined in Section 6 of the BCEA and should be understood, but the advice for business owners is to ensure any associated increase in staff costs are accounted for.

The increase in the threshold is generally regarded as a positive move, and a move to empower employees, safeguard jobs and increase consumer confidence – which is key to moving the economy forward and unlocking opportunities, because ultimately, we are all consumers, and our actions drive the economy.

Increased water shortages

If the persistent and painstaking reality of load shedding isn’t enough of a threat to business sustainability, the impending threat of a nation-wide water-crisis - already impacting large parts of Johannesburg – has the potential to push some pockets of the market over the edge. South Africa’s economic hub has recently experienced days, and in some cases weeks, of dry taps thanks to power failures, lightning strikes, burst water pipes and planned maintenance. And by most accounts, Johannesburg is not the only city experiencing water supply and/or infrastructure problems.

The Department of Water and Sanitation’s 2023 Blue Drop Audit Report states that 67,6% of wastewater treatment works are close to failure, while close to half (46%) of water supply systems in the country pose acute health risks due to contamination. In fact, the prevalence of outages in the eThekwini municipality lead to a new phrase to describe the turbulence – water-shedding.

The entire community is impacted by a lack of water, but it is acutely felt by small businesses, especially those operating in the hospitality and tourism industry. Restaurants, gyms, car washes and hotels are some of the obvious businesses to be impacted, but it is also a devastating blow to businesses that need water for manufacturing, or simply need to provide basic sanitation.

While experts point towards ageing and badly maintained infrastructure as the source of the crises, one can only hope that government is not asleep at the wheel, since a water crisis can have a more brutal impact on citizens than load-shedding. And unless you’re in the business of selling JoJo water tanks or renting out water tankers, the possibility of taps running dry should be of concern.

Issues like these, are why planning for sustainability should always be on the table. Our recent SME Sustainability Survey showed that when compared to the energy crisis, and Covid-19, water shortages impacted less than 2% of businesses. And while the question was framed in the light of Cape Town’s “day zero” - which can account for the small percentage - it is safe to assume that if the same survey was conducted today, the issue of water shortages would be of concern to a much higher percentage of SMEs as the issues spread across the country.

Increased competition

Retailers need to keep a watchful eye on the increase in e-commerce competition that is putting a strain on sales numbers of local businesses. Any product search on Google right now will likely result in a flood of results from Temu – a relative newcomer in the South African e-commerce landscape, that launched in January 2024. Temu, and other platforms like Shein, are based in Asia and offer deeply discounted prices on just about anything imaginable.

It is estimated that Temu has spent over $3-billion worldwide on advertising in 2023, making it Meta’s top advertiser, and signs are they are not stopping.

While a quick Google search will reveal that the jury is out on the quality and reliability of Temu and similar platforms, the fact remains that these platforms are where searches and sales are heading. This means local advertisers, need to have a workaround to advertising their business as they have been used to doing. Because of this increasingly contested space, we have seen an increase in the use of local online marketplaces like Makro Marketplace, and on the Xchange platform of our Flex business community - where average monthly usage has almost doubled from last year.

In the face of increasing international competition, and rising prices for a seat at the digital marketing table, entrepreneurs would do well to find ways to think locally, in a way that foreign brands can’t. By using closed peer-to-peer community platforms, employing hyper local, hyper targeted key words in their digital marketing strategy, leveraging existing databases with CRM campaigns for repeat purchase, or simply being present at local events, SMEs can operate in spaces the Temu’s and the Shein’s can’t reach.

Electioneering ramping up

With South Africa’s upcoming general elections now on the horizon, small businesses may well have a bumpy ride ahead as this will undoubtedly become more of a contributing factor to business performance as the country edges closer to the 29th of May.

Being this close to a general election will also mean that April will see political parties from our increasingly diverse political landscape ramping up their campaigns, because your vote has never been more coveted, and the election never more contested.

As empowering as democracy is, business owners and consumers alike can expect electioneering, political rhetoric and grandstanding from the candidates to increase, as they try to gain valuable votes.

From an SME perspective, stability during the run up to the election is a must, so we will all be well advised to keep cool heads as things heat up.

April 2024 will not be without its particular set of challenges, but South African SME owners will know that this is par for the course. But as they say, being forewarned is being forearmed, so April is a time to prepare businesses to ensure challenges don’t become crises.